It hasn’t hit the fan yet, but said fan is definitely on. And it’s on high. 

What we know: Butler is in the A10 as of July 1, 2013. The Bulldogs will replace Temple who joins the Big East in all sports on the same date and maintain the membership at 14.

What we believe: Charlotte is leaving the A10 (dropping membership back to 13) next summer for CUSA, a home for its yet-to-play-a-down football program as well as all other teams. After some conflicting reports and denials following CBS’ Brett McMurphy’s initial story, the Charlotte Observer’s Gold Mine blog is confirming via “sources” that the Niners are indeed goners. Old Dominion is also reportedly joining Charlotte in the expanding CUSA, taking its teams–including newbie football–out of the CAA.

What we assume: VCU and George Mason are now begging for an invite to the A10. Both schools have long been rumored as being interested in the A10, although both have hesitations. One or both may have been waiting to get a better read on what the Big East hoops schools may or may not do. Adding to this hesitation now VCU is dealing with an interim AD. With Charlotte leaving, the A10 may only need one of the CAA Two to return to 14 schools. Are VCU and GMU now competing against each other? Are they even willing to be split? Your guess is as good as mine. Taking both may well indicate the A10′s desire to get to 16 teams by adding a third school with VCU and GMU. But is there an obvious choice for that third team? In short, no.

What we don’t know: CAA commissioner Tom Yeager has proved adept and in tune with conference realignment in the past. Does the CAA have a response if ODU joins Georgia State in leaving for greener pastures that would re-stabilize the conference and convince VCU and GMU to stick around? Is the CAA viable at 8 teams if VCU and GMU leave also? How long is UMass, the lone FBS playing member remaining in the A10, going to hang around the league before football forces its hand to look elsewhere? And of course the biggie: will the Big East hoops schools ever split from the football schools?

Indulge me for a moment in regard to that last question:

The Big East schools are loathe to leave the Big East for one very big reason: the name. More than (or at least as much as) money or TV deals or anything else, Providence, Georgetown, St. John’s, et al don’t want to lose the Big East name, the banner, the logos. That name holds recognition, tradition, cache, and Dave Gavitt’s original vision for a dominant East Coast basketball conference. But desperate times…

What if there was a place that was still trying to realize Gavitt’s dream? A place of like-minded institutions that wanted to play basketball at the highest level? It’s not the Big East, but the Atlantic 10 is at least an established and known brand with a proud tradition. And as of July 1, 2013, it may well have an undesirable and awkward thirteen members.

The Big East basketball (non-FBS) schools: Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, DePaul, Marquette, St. John’s, Villanova.

13 + 7 = 20. Hmmmmm.

What’s that you say? Notre Dame wants to stay independent in FBS like you wouldn’t believe? And UMass is playing FBS football in the MAC? Swap ‘em. Kicking a team out of a conference is a dirty business, especially a long-time A10 member like the Minutemen. But we’re talking about Notre Dame here. Again, desperate times…

Twenty breaks into two ten-team divisions (the Atlantic 10s?) very nicely. There’s even good East-Midwest balance, good media markets, solid inventory.

Just throwing a pipe dream to the wind. Self-indulgence over.

The A10 is reshaping itself with Butler and the presumed departure of Charlotte. What does the new shape mean for UR?

For starters, it removes one more school with football aspirations and motivations thus further stabilizing the conference. UMass will be left as the only school in the A10 that plays or holds FBS football aspirations. The clock is probably ticking on the Minutemen’s time in the league. The identity of the league is becoming much more focused: smaller, basketball-only schools with zero FBS football delusions. Conference stability is a good graet thing.

The removal of Charlotte and addition of Butler shifts the center of the league north and west. Butler, St. Louis, Xavier, Dayton and Duquesne make a solid midwest contingent.

Charlotte really never lived up to expectations since it joined the league in 1995. The league is neither stronger nor weaker on the court without the Niners. Butler for Temple is a push.

The Niner-Spider rivalry was always forced. Charlotte will make a reasonable OOC fixture every or every-other year. Depending on how the reconfigured league decides to create the conference schedule, the Spiders figure to have at least two conference dates up for grabs. Filling the annual conference home-and-home with Butler is getting a little greedy, but at least one more game a year (if not two) between Xavier/Dayton/Butler/St. Louis would be pretty nice.

As far as recruiting goes, things just got tougher. Losing a presence in North Carolina is unfortunate, but likely more so for A10 schools not named Richmond. Butler brings an increased presence in the fertile fields of Indiana and the midwest, but UR would have to go a long way to win those recruits away from Butler, Xavier or St. Louis. Meanwhile, articles are already flying up about recruiting challenges for Brad Stevens in the more competitive A10 if he hopes to maintain his commitment to the “Butler Way.” The worry is crap. Stevens is young, energetic and successful. He’ll be a beast in the eastern recruiting fields thanks to the A10. As far as the “Butler Way,” that sounds an awful lot like Mooney’s philosophy and history at UR. And he’s done just fine, thank you. In fact, it was UR’s deviation from such a philosophy under Wainwright that left the Spiders in trouble during Mooney’s early seasons. Expect a lot of recruiting battles between Mooney and Stevens.

And expect a Butler A10 title before not too long.

The A10 just might be able to fill some of those seats at the Barclays Center after all.